This Upcoming Economic Reports

With Christmas falling at the end of the week, we may see larger reactions to news stories because of light trading volume due fewer traders on the job.


There will however be 6 new economic reports released in this holiday shortened week.  No earth shattering news is expected but if you are planning to close on mortgage before the new year, I would advise you to lock in your interest rate if you haven't already done so.  Remember, good news for the economy is often bad news for rates so not seeing any indication of extremely bad news says to me that there's a better chance of rates going up slightly during these next 2 weeks than down.


Two of the reports are scheduled for Tuesday. We have the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP and November’s Existing Home Sales report.  If there is a strong upward revision, this could hurt rates somewhat but probably nothing dramatic will come of this release.  The Existing Home Sales report is from the National Association of Realtors.  It should not affect rates much.  If it comes in much stronger than expected, then we'll see some pressure on rates.


On Wednesday, we'll see New Home Sales data from the Commerce Dept.  Like the Existing Home Sales report, I don't expect to see rates react very strongly unless the news is much different than what is expected. We'll also get November’s Personal Income and Outlays data.  This gives us a measurement of consumer spending habits.  Consumer spending makes up 2/3's of the economy so if the actual news varies greatly from what is expected, rates could be affected.  Current expectations are for small increases in income and spending.  If the increases are not there, this would help rates.  Also on Wednesday comes the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December.  Any variant from the expected reading could affect rates.


On Thursday we'll receive November's Durable Goods Orders. This report provides a measurement of the strength of the manufacturing sector.  Current expectations are for a small increase of 0.5%.  If the report shows a decline, then that would indicate weakness and could positively impact interest rates.


My recommendations would be to lock in your rate if you expect to close before the end of the year otherwise, I would float the rate.